Weekly deep dive · Fri Nov 6, 2026
Weekly for the week of Mon Nov 2 - mood mixed
Research and education only. Not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
This is the Morning Edge weekly for Mon Nov 2 to Fri Nov 6, 2026. We start with the economy and the overall market, then look at company financials, price trends, options and what people are talking about online. Each section notes how well tested it is.
1. The backdrop
Mood went from supportive (Mon Nov 2) to mixed (Fri Nov 6). VIX moved 21.1 to 25.6.
| Day | Mood | Supportive / warning | VIX | SPY vs 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 2 | Supportive | 4 / 0 | 21.1 | +3.5% |
| Tue Nov 3 | Supportive | 4 / 0 | 20.8 | +3.8% |
| Wed Nov 4 | Supportive | 6 / 0 | 16.6 | +5.5% |
| Thu Nov 5 | Mixed | 3 / 1 | 28.2 | +0.8% |
| Fri Nov 6 | Mixed | 3 / 1 | 25.6 | +1.1% |
- Market trendsupportiveS&P 500 (SPY) is +1.1% vs its 200-day average
- Breadthneutral55% of 70 large caps sit above their own 200-day average
- Volatility (VIX)neutralVIX at 25.6 (under 20 is calm, over 30 is stressed)
- Fear curvewarningshort-term fear is above 3-month fear (VIX/VIX3M 1.04)
- Credit stressneutralhigh-yield bond spread at 3.48%
- Financial conditionssupportivefinancial conditions looser than average (Chicago Fed NFCI -0.46)
- Jobless claimssupportivejobless claims 0% above their 52-week low
- Yield curveneutral10-year minus 3-month yield +0.67% (positive)
2. Upside vs downside
Each evening we score about 75 large, liquid US stocks and ETFs on a 21-session good case and bad case, built from each name's own volatility, support levels, trend, fundamentals and analyst targets. Names toward the upper left have more upside for the downside.
| Ticker | Sector | Good case | Bad case | Ratio | Why it scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Information Technology | 75.3% | 19.5% | 3.85 | -64% vs 52w high; -34% vs 200d; rev +378% y/y; target +147% |
| AXTI | Information Technology | 92.4% | 25.1% | 3.68 | -73% vs 52w high; -40% vs 200d; rev +165% y/y; target +134% |
| LITE | Information Technology | 57.0% | 15.9% | 3.59 | -53% vs 52w high; -33% vs 200d; rev +137% y/y; target +99% |
| MU | Information Technology | 49.6% | 14.2% | 3.49 | -45% vs 52w high; -8% vs 200d; rev +346% y/y; target +133% |
| INTC | Information Technology | 48.1% | 18.2% | 2.65 | -60% vs 52w high; -35% vs 200d; rev +21% y/y; move +1.6 sd; target +61% |
| QQQ | Benchmark ETF | 10.8% | 4.2% | 2.57 | -14% vs 52w high; -3% vs 200d |
| MRVL | Information Technology | 53.7% | 21.1% | 2.54 | -57% vs 52w high; -23% vs 200d; rev +37% y/y; target +129%; earnings 2026-12-01 inside 1-month window |
| AMD | Information Technology | 37.0% | 14.7% | 2.52 | -32% vs 52w high; +8% vs 200d; rev +45% y/y; move +2.5 sd; target +46% |
5 of the top 5 are Information Technology; 3 share one SEC industry (Semiconductors & Related Devices), so they are close to one bet.
The asymmetry ratio is a model reading, not a tested edge. In our 2015-2026 backtest it predicted how big a swing may be, not its direction.
3. Repeat names
Times each name made the evening top 10 across this week's 4 scorecards. A name that stays near the top all week is a steadier reading than a one-day spike.
- MU: 4 of 4 nights
- INTC: 4 of 4 nights
- AXTI: 4 of 4 nights
- AMD: 4 of 4 nights
- CAT: 4 of 4 nights
- SNDK: 3 of 4 nights
- MRVL: 3 of 4 nights
- LRCX: 2 of 4 nights
4. Revenue and margins
The fastest revenue growth among tonight's names, from their latest SEC filings.
| Ticker | Revenue y/y | Operating margin | Off 52-week high | Quality rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | +377.9% | 79.6% | -64.3% | 95 |
| MU | +345.7% | 80.4% | -44.6% | 95 |
| AXTI | +164.8% | 21.9% | -72.7% | 85 |
| SPCX | +161.4% | 19.1% | -39.9% | 83 |
| LITE | +136.5% | 28.5% | -52.8% | 78 |
| CRWV | +112.5% | -1.9% | -66.3% | 67 |
5. Online chatter vs quality
The most-discussed tickers on Reddit, next to each company's quality rank (0-100, from margins, growth, cash flow and balance sheet). Green is stronger, yellow is weaker. Names with lots of chatter and weak numbers deserve extra caution.
6. Report card
How earlier readings played out. The ratio is meant to find names with bigger swings, so we check whether the top 10 by ratio moved more than the rest over the next five sessions, up or down.
| Scorecard | Top 10 avg move | Others avg move | Top 10 avg return | Others avg return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 9.7% | 7.9% | -8.3% | -2.9% |
| Thu Oct 29 | 21.9% | 9.2% | -21.9% | -6.9% |
Descriptive only, from 2 evening(s) of live data so far. This is not a test and not evidence of an edge.
7. From the research lab
Since late October we have written down 79 trading ideas before testing each one on 2015-onward data with costs and a multiple-testing correction. 2 passed, 65 failed, 4 are waiting for data and 8 could not be tested with free data. Most ideas fail, and we report those too.
The one rule that survived as a buy signal (large-cap earnings gap-ups while the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average) has its market filter ON going into next week. Its corrected p-value is close to our cutoff, so the evidence is thin.
Logged this week
- H90 cot spec washout metals: pre-registered, not run yet
- H91 macro surprise index: could not be tested with free data
- H92 gdelt macro attention: could not be tested with free data
- H93 leaders in drawdown: pre-registered, not run yet
- H94 gex negative next day vol: passed, as a volatility forecast (not a buy signal)
- H95 gex regime spy exposure: did not pass
- H96 gex washout spy long: did not pass
- H97 king node pin: pre-registered, not run yet
Morning Edge is published for research and education only. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security. It is general information written for every reader alike and does not consider your goals, finances or risk tolerance. Model readings such as the asymmetry ratio are untested. Our own backtest found the ratio predicts how big a move may be, not which way it goes. Data can be late or wrong. Past results do not predict future results, and you can lose money investing. The authors may hold positions in securities mentioned. Do your own research and talk to a licensed financial adviser before you invest.